The luster of the BRIC’s has worn off in 2016. Brazil is a basket case-the $R has depreciated, GDP has fallen, the Zika virus is alive and the prospect of a summer 2016 Olympic fiasco cannot be dismissed. In Russia, foreign sanctions continue, falling oil prices and the steady deterioration of the ruble point towards negative 2016 GDP growth too. China hopes for a soft landing and steady real estate pricing, but hope is not an effective strategy. Chinese GDP growth has been down forecasted to <5%.
India may be at the top of the heap in most of the BRIC global expansion newsletters I’ve read this year.
The optimists will cite the advantages of India:
The pessimists will counter these statements with India’s long standing disadvantages:
I have seen US export investment conservatism during the recent strength of the $US. Doing nothing will improve nothing-at best you remain constant, but usually you fall behind. Defensive strategies at a time of a strong $US will spur outside competitors to go on their export offense. It is time to reevaluate your Indian strategy.
Great thanks to Dileep Rao, Dixita Dinesh and Amit Pande for their insights incorporated to this blog.